The Interdependence of Sequential Senate Elections: Evidence from 1946-2002
نویسنده
چکیده
Among U.S. federal elections, Senate elections are unique in that each state is a two-member district where representatives are elected sequentially to overlapping terms. Models of the sequential nature of Senate elections have been proposed suggesting that the outcome of the election for one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats affects the contest for the other. More specifically, these models predict that the winning party for the first Senate seat will receive less votes, holding other things constant, in the next election for the other seat. Using data on U.S. Senate elections from 1946-2002 and a regression discontinuity design (RDD), I find strong evidence that the outcomes of the elections for the two Senate seats are independent for close elections.
منابع مشابه
USING RECOUNTS TO MEASURE THE ACCURACY OF VOTE TABULATIONS: Evidence from New Hampshire Elections 1946-2002
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